Chesapeake, Virginia-based Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. With a market cap of $18.6 billion, the company’s stores successfully operate in major metropolitan areas, mid-sized cities, and small towns.

DLTR has lagged behind the broader market over the past year, but it has outperformed in 2025. DLTR’s stock prices have declined 28.7% over the past 52 weeks and have gained 15.4% on a YTD basis, compared to the S&P 500 Index’s ($SPX) 12.5% gains over the past year and a 1.3% uptick in 2025.

Narrowing the focus, DLTR has also underperformed the industry-focused SPDR S&P Retail ETF’s (XRT) marginal decline over the past 52 weeks. However, the company has outperformed its 3.9% fall on a YTD basis.

DLTR shares rose 3.1% following the release of its unimpressive Q4 earnings on Mar. 26. The company’s net sales rose marginally year-over-year to $5 billion and missed Street forecasts. Its adjusted operating margin contracted 230 basis points to 12.6%, driving its adjusted operating income to decrease 15.2% from the previous year’s quarter to $627.8 million. DLTR’s adjusted earnings also fell 15.3% from its year-ago value to $2.11. However, despite unimpressive results, investor optimism was restored largely due to the announced sale of the underperforming Family Dollar segment, which marked a strategic refocus on the more profitable Dollar Tree brand.

For the current fiscal year, ending in January 2026, analysts expect DLTR to report a modest 1.8% year-over-year increase in adjusted EPS to $5.19. The company has a mixed earnings surprise history. It has surpassed or met the Street’s bottom-line estimates twice over the past four quarters, while missing on two occasions. Its adjusted EPS of $2.11 reported in Q4 failed to meet the consensus estimates by 3.2%.

Meanwhile, DLTR has a consensus “Moderate Buy” rating overall. Of the 23 analysts covering the stock, opinions include seven “Strong Buys,” 15 “Holds,” and one “Moderate Sell.”

The configuration is slightly more bullish than two months ago, when only six analysts gave “Strong Buy” recommendations.

On May 6, Truist Securities (TFC) analyst Scot Ciccarelli maintained a "Buy" rating for DLTR stock and raised the price from $84 to $89.

As of writing, DLTR's mean price target of $82.50 sits below its current price level, while the street-high target of $103 suggests a notable 19.1% upside potential.