Pure Hedge - Livestock and Grain
The Livestock markets were higher today, and I think that provided another selling opportunity. February'24 Live Cattle were 3.200 higher today and settled at 165.725. The low today in Feb'24 Live Cattle was 162.675 and that's just above the 1-month and 52-weel low of 162.400. Since 11/8 February'24 Live Cattle are 13.750 lower or over 7 ½%. January'24 Feeder Cattle gained 5.025 today and settled at 215.300. Today's low in Jan'24 Feeders was 210.400, not far from the 1-month and 52-week low of 209.150. Since 11/8 Jan'24 Feeders are down 17.475 or 7 ½%. Hogs gained today as well. February'24 Lean Hogs were 1.200 higher today and settled at 68.975, just above the 1-month and 52-week low of 65.800. Since 11/8 Feb'24 Hogs are down 5.875 or almost 8%. I feel that today's small rally in the Meats was a gift, or opportunity to short the Cattle markets over the weekend, and I still like the idea of selling into any strength in the Cattle Markets. I believe the Live Cattle will head lower to 145-150 levels, and the Feeders will slide to the 180-185 level. The Grain Markets broke after the release of the WASDE Report this morning. January'24 Soybeans were 7 ¾ cents lower today and settled at 1304. The beans broke from their high today of 1330 ¾ after the Report. Since 11/8 Jan'24 Beans are down 61 ¾ cents or 4 ½%. March'24 Corn gave back 2 ½ cents today and settled at 485 ½. Since 11/8 Mar'24 Corn is 4 ½ cents lower or almost 1%. The Wheat market also broke today. March'24 Wheat fell 10 ½ cents today and settled at 631 ¾. Since 11/8 Mar'24 Wheat is 15 ¼ cents higher or almost 2 ½%. Today was a perfect example of selling into any strength in the Grains. The Grain markets turned around from their highs, just after the report. Jan'24 Soybeans broke over 30 cents from their highs today. I hope you took advantage of that opportunity, if not, I feel there will be other moves higher you can lean into. It is still my opinion that the Jan'24 Soybeans will expire around the $13.00 level, and will continue lower from there… I like the $11.50 level in Soybeans next Summer or Fall. I recommend hedging in July'24 Soybeans now. There is always opportunity if you know where to look for it.
CORN CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 485 1/2 | 500C | 9 1/4 | $462.50 |
| 530C | 3 1/4 | $162.50 | |
| 560C | 1 1/4 | $62.50 | |
| ATM 485C 15 1/4 | ATM STRADDLE 30 | EXPIRES 2/23/24 | |
| MAY’24 497 1/2 | 550C | 7 5/8 | $381.25 |
| 600C | 2 3/4 | $137.50 | |
| 650C | 1 1/4 | $62.50 | |
| ATM 500C 21 5/8 | ATM STRADDLE 45 3/4 | EXPIRES 4/26/24 | |
| JUL’24 506 | 550C | 14 7/8 | $743.75 |
| 600C | 6 7/8 | $343.75 | |
| 650C | 3 3/8 | $168.75 | |
| ATM 500C 32 | ATM STRADDLE 58 1/8 | EXPIRES 6/21/24 |
CORN PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 485 1/2 | 460P | 5 1/8 | $256.25 |
| 430P | 1 1/8 | $56.25 | |
| 400P | 3/8 | $18.75 | |
| ATM 485P 14 3/4 | ATM STRADDLE 30 | EXPIRES 2/23/24 | |
| MAY’24 497 1/2 | 460P | 7 1/2 | $375 |
| 430P | 2 1/2 | $125 | |
| 400P | 3/4 | $37.50 | |
| ATM 500P 24 1/8 | ATM STRADDLE 45 3/4 | EXPIRES 4/26/24 | |
| JUL’24 506 | 450P | 7 3/8 | $368.75 |
| 400P | 1 1/2 | $75 | |
| 350P | 3/8 | $18.75 | |
| ATM 500P 26 1/8 | ATM STRADDLE 58 1/8 | EXPIRES 6/21/24 |
SEPTEMBER’24 CORN
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 507 1/2 | 10% BULL MOVE | 558 1/4 | 550C | 22 1/2 |
| 507 1/2 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 456.75 | 460P | 15 3/8 |
| 507 1/2 | 20% BULL MOVE | 609 | 600C | 12 3/8 |
| 507 1/2 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 406 | 410P | 4 1/4 |
| 507 1/2 | 30% BULL MOVE | 659 3/4 | 650C | 7 1/8 |
| 507 1/2 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 355 1/4 | 360P | 1 |
CURRENT PRICE REFLECTS TODAYS SETTLEMENT PRICE ONLY AND WILL CHANGE OVER TIME AND WITH VOLATILITY. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS
WHEAT CALLS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 631 3/4 | 650C | 25 5/8 | $1,281.25 |
| 700C | 13 1/8 | $656.25 | |
| 750C | 7 1/8 | $356.25 | |
| ATM 630C 33 3/8 | ATM STRADDLE 65 | EXPIRES 2/23/24 | |
| MAY’24 640 1/2 | 700C | 25 1/2 | $1,275 |
| 750C | 16 3/8 | $818.75 | |
| 800C | 10 7/8 | $543.75 | |
| ATM 640C 44 5/8 | ATM STRADDLE 88 3/4 | EXPIRES 4/26/24 | |
| JUL’24 645 1/2 | 700C | 33 7/8 | $1,693.78 |
| 800C | 16 1/8 | $806.25 | |
| 900C | 8 5/8 | $431.25 | |
| ATM 650C 49 3/4 | ATM STRADDLE 103 7/8 | EXPIRES 6/21/24 |
WHEAT PUTS
| MONTH | STRIKE | PRICE | COST |
| MAR’24 631 3/4 | 550P | 4 5/8 | $231.25 |
| 525P | 2 1/8 | $106.25 | |
| 500P | 1 | $50 | |
| ATM 630P 31 5/8 | ATM STRADDLE 65 | EXPIRES 2/23/24 | |
| MAY’24 640 1/2 | 550P | 8 7/8 | $443.75 |
| 500P | 2 3/4 | $137.50 | |
| 450P | 3/4 | $37.50 | |
| ATM 640P 44 5/8 | ATM STRADDLE 88 3/4 | EXPIRES 4/26/24 | |
| JUL’24 645 1/2 | 550P | 12 1/8 | $606.25 |
| 500P | 4 1/8 | $206.25 | |
| 450P | 1 1/4 | $62.50 | |
| ATM 650P 54 1/8 | ATM STRADDLE 103 7/8 | EXPIRES 6/21/24 |
SEPTEMBER’24 WHEAT
| CURRENT PRICE | PRICE ACTION | PRICE AFTER MOVE | STRIKE | CURRENT PRICE |
| 654 3/4 | 10% BULL MOVE | 720 1/4 | 720C | 38 3/4 |
| 654 3/4 | 10% BEAR MOVE | 589 3/8 | 590P | 27 7/8 |
| 654 3/4 | 20% BULL MOVE | 785 3/4 | 780C | 26 1/4 |
| 654 3/4 | 20% BEAR MOVE | 523 3/4 | 530P | 10 3/4 |
| 654 3/4 | 30% BULL MOVE | 851 1/8 | 850C | 17 3/8 |
| 654 3/4 | 30% BEAR MOVE | 458 3/8 | 460P | 2 3/4 |
CURRENT PRICE REFLECTS TODAYS SETTLEMENT PRICE ONLY AND WILL CHANGE OVER TIME AND WITH VOLATILITY. THERE IS SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS TRADING FUTURES AND OPTIONS.
Call or email me if you would like to talk about the markets.
I have market commentary and option charts in Pure Hedge – Livestock
and Pure Hedge – Grain at WWW.WALSHTRADING.COM
Call for specific trade recommendations.
Email me for free research.
Bill Allen
Senior Account Executive
Direct: 1 312 957 8079
WALSH TRADING INC.
53 West Jackson Boulevard, Suite 750
Chicago, Illinois 60604
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